Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

Parasite avoidance behaviours in aquatic environments

Parasites, including macroparasites, protists, fungi, bacteria and viruses, can impose a heavy burden upon host animals. However, hosts are not without defences. One aspect of host defence, behavioural avoidance, has been studied in the terrestrial realm for over 50 years, but was first reported from the aquatic environment approximately 20 years ago. Evidence has mounted on the importance of parasite avoidance behaviours and it is increasingly apparent that there are core similarities in the function and benefit of this defence mechanism between terrestrial and aquatic systems. However, there are also stark differences driven by the unique biotic and abiotic characteristics of terrestrial and aquatic (marine and freshwater) environments. Here, we review avoidance behaviours in a comparative framework and highlight the characteristics of each environment that drive differences in the suite of mechanisms and cues that animals use to avoid parasites. We then explore trade-offs, potential negative effects of avoidance behaviour and the influence of human activities on avoidance behaviours. We conclude that avoidance behaviours are understudied in aquatic environments but can have significant implications for disease ecology and epidemiology, especially considering the accelerating emergence and re-emergence of parasites.peerReviewe

Building development and roads: implications for the distribution of stone curlews across the Brecks

Background: Substantial new housing and infrastructure development planned within England has the potential to conflict with the nature conservation interests of protected sites. The Breckland area of eastern England (the Brecks) is designated as a Special Protection Area for a number of bird species, including the stone curlew (for which it holds more than 60% of the UK total population). We explore the effect of buildings and roads on the spatial distribution of stone curlew nests across the Brecks in order to inform strategic development plans to avoid adverse effects on such European protected sites. Methodology: Using data across all years (and subsets of years) over the period 1988 – 2006 but restricted to habitat areas of arable land with suitable soils, we assessed nest density in relation to the distances to nearest settlements and to major roads. Measures of the local density of nearby buildings, roads and traffic levels were assessed using normal kernel distance-weighting functions. Quasi-Poisson generalised linear mixed models allowing for spatial auto-correlation were fitted. Results: Significantly lower densities of stone curlew nests were found at distances up to 1500m from settlements, and distances up to 1000m or more from major (trunk) roads. The best fitting models involved optimally distance-weighted variables for the extent of nearby buildings and the trunk road traffic levels. Significance : The results and predictions from this study of past data suggests there is cause for concern that future housing development and associated road infrastructure within the Breckland area could have negative impacts on the nesting stone curlew population. Given the strict legal protection afforded to the SPA the planning and conservation bodies have subsequently agreed precautionary restrictions on building development within the distances identified and used the modelling predictions to agree mitigation measures for proposed trunk road developments

Spatial Pattern Switching Enables Cyclic Evolution in Spatial Epidemics

Infectious diseases often spread as spatial epidemic outbreak waves. A number of model studies have shown that such spatial pattern formation can have important consequences for the evolution of pathogens. Here, we show that such spatial patterns can cause cyclic evolutionary dynamics in selection for the length of the infectious period. The necessary reversal in the direction of selection is enabled by a qualitative change in the spatial pattern from epidemic waves to irregular local outbreaks. The spatial patterns are an emergent property of the epidemic system, and they are robust against changes in specific model assumptions. Our results indicate that emergent spatial patterns can act as a rich source for complexity in pathogen evolution

Evaluating Promotional Approaches for Citizen Science Biological Recording: Bumblebees as a Group Versus Harmonia axyridis as a Flagship for Ladybirds

Over the past decade, the number of biological records submitted by members of the public have increased dramatically. However, this may result in reduced record quality, depending on how species are promoted in the media. Here we examined the two main promotional approaches for citizen science recording schemes: flagship-species, using one charismatic species as an umbrella for the entire group (here, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) for Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), and general-group, where the group is promoted as a whole and no particular prominence is given to any one species (here, bumblebees, genus Bombus (Hymenoptera: Apidae)). Of the two approaches, the general-group approach produced data that was not biased towards any one species, but far fewer records per year overall. In contrast, the flagship-species approach generated a much larger annual dataset, but heavily biased towards the flagship itself. Therefore, we recommend that the approach for species promotion is fitted to the result desired

PCR diagnosis of tick-borne pathogens in Maharashtra state, India indicates fitness cost associated with carrier infections is greater for crossbreed than native cattle breeds

Tick-borne pathogens (TBP) are responsible for significant economic losses to cattle production, globally. This is particularly true in countries like India where TBP constrain rearing of high yielding Bos taurus, as they show susceptibility to acute tick borne disease (TBD), most notably tropical theileriosis caused by Theileria annulata. This has led to a programme of cross breeding Bos taurus (Holstein-Friesian or Jersey) with native Bos indicus (numerous) breeds to generate cattle that are more resistant to disease. However, the cost to fitness of subclinical carrier infection in crossbreeds relative to native breeds is unknown, but could represent a significant hidden economic cost. In this study, a total of 1052 bovine blood samples, together with associated data on host type, sex and body score, were collected from apparently healthy animals in four different agro-climatic zones of Maharashtra state. Samples were screened by PCR for detection of five major TBPs: T. annulata, T. orientalis, B. bigemina, B. bovis and Anaplasma spp.. The results demonstrated that single and co-infection with TBP are common, and although differences in pathogen spp. prevalence across the climatic zones were detected, simplistic regression models predicted that host type, sex and location are all likely to impact on prevalence of TBP. In order to remove issues with autocorrelation between variables, a subset of the dataset was modelled to assess any impact of TBP infection on body score of crossbreed versus native breed cattle (breed type). The model showed significant association between infection with TBP (particularly apicomplexan parasites) and poorer body condition for crossbreed animals. These findings indicate potential cost of TBP carrier infection on crossbreed productivity. Thus, there is a case for development of strategies for targeted breeding to combine productivity traits with disease resistance, or to prevent transmission of TBP in India for economic benefit

The Random Nature of Genome Architecture: Predicting Open Reading Frame Distributions

Background: A better understanding of the size and abundance of open reading frames (ORFS) in whole genomes may shed light on the factors that control genome complexity. Here we examine the statistical distributions of open reading frames (i.e. distribution of start and stop codons) in the fully sequenced genomes of 297 prokaryotes, and 14 eukaryotes. Methodology/Principal Findings: By fitting mixture models to data from whole genome sequences we show that the size-frequency distributions for ORFS are strikingly similar across prokaryotic and eukaryotic genomes. Moreover, we show that i) a large fraction (60–80%) of ORF size-frequency distributions can be predicted a priori with a stochastic assembly model based on GC content, and that (ii) size-frequency distributions of the remaining “non-random” ORFs are well-fitted by log-normal or gamma distributions, and similar to the size distributions of annotated proteins. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings suggest stochastic processes have played a primary role in the evolution of genome complexity, and that common processes govern the conservation and loss of functional genomics units in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes.8 page(s

A Systematic Review of Mosquito Coils and Passive Emanators: Defining Recommendations for Spatial Repellency Testing Methodologies.

Mosquito coils, vaporizer mats and emanators confer protection against mosquito bites through the spatial action of emanated vapor or airborne pyrethroid particles. These products dominate the pest control market; therefore, it is vital to characterize mosquito responses elicited by the chemical actives and their potential for disease prevention. The aim of this review was to determine effects of mosquito coils and emanators on mosquito responses that reduce human-vector contact and to propose scientific consensus on terminologies and methodologies used for evaluation of product formats that could contain spatial chemical actives, including indoor residual spraying (IRS), long lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and insecticide treated materials (ITMs). PubMed, (National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), U.S. National Library of Medicine, NIH), MEDLINE, LILAC, Cochrane library, IBECS and Armed Forces Pest Management Board Literature Retrieval System search engines were used to identify studies of pyrethroid based coils and emanators with key-words "Mosquito coils" "Mosquito emanators" and "Spatial repellents". It was concluded that there is need to improve statistical reporting of studies, and reach consensus in the methodologies and terminologies used through standardized testing guidelines. Despite differing evaluation methodologies, data showed that coils and emanators induce mortality, deterrence, repellency as well as reduce the ability of mosquitoes to feed on humans. Available data on efficacy outdoors, dose-response relationships and effective distance of coils and emanators is inadequate for developing a target product profile (TPP), which will be required for such chemicals before optimized implementation can occur for maximum benefits in disease control

Spatial Guilds in the Serengeti Food Web Revealed by a Bayesian Group Model

Food webs, networks of feeding relationships among organisms, provide fundamental insights into mechanisms that determine ecosystem stability and persistence. Despite long-standing interest in the compartmental structure of food webs, past network analyses of food webs have been constrained by a standard definition of compartments, or modules, that requires many links within compartments and few links between them. Empirical analyses have been further limited by low-resolution data for primary producers. In this paper, we present a Bayesian computational method for identifying group structure in food webs using a flexible definition of a group that can describe both functional roles and standard compartments. The Serengeti ecosystem provides an opportunity to examine structure in a newly compiled food web that includes species-level resolution among plants, allowing us to address whether groups in the food web correspond to tightly-connected compartments or functional groups, and whether network structure reflects spatial or trophic organization, or a combination of the two. We have compiled the major mammalian and plant components of the Serengeti food web from published literature, and we infer its group structure using our method. We find that network structure corresponds to spatially distinct plant groups coupled at higher trophic levels by groups of herbivores, which are in turn coupled by carnivore groups. Thus the group structure of the Serengeti web represents a mixture of trophic guild structure and spatial patterns, in contrast to the standard compartments typically identified in ecological networks. From data consisting only of nodes and links, the group structure that emerges supports recent ideas on spatial coupling and energy channels in ecosystems that have been proposed as important for persistence.Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures (+ 3 supporting), 2 tables (+ 4 supporting

Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted ‘edge effect’ by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of ‘edge effects’ on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models